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Posted in: News
A Record Winter Becomes a Record Spring... What's Next?
By Mitch Traphagen
Jun 19, 2008 - 11:05:15 PM

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This pickup truck, owned by former Victor resident Steve Petersen, appeared on the front page of the June 13 edition of the Kansas City Star. The truck is shown on top of what was once Petersen’s house in Manhattan, Kansas. Petersen and his family were on their way to Victor when the storm struck. Chris Oberholtz Photo / Kansas City Star. Photo courtesy of the Kansas City Star, www.kansascity.com

VICTOR - Snowfall and ice storms have turned into rainfall, tornados and flooding, leading many in East Iowa to wonder what is next?  Could the weather get worse?

Extreme weather has become so common that if people haven’t been affected themselves, almost everyone knows someone who has.

Steve Petersen, a Major in the U.S. Army, was  traveling with his family last week to visit his parents, Stu and Sharon Petersen, in Victor.  The family also planned to visit friends in Cedar Rapids.  Along the way, a neighbor called telling Petersen he needed to return home to Manhattan, Kansas.  In fact, Petersen no longer had a home.  The same storm that killed four boy scouts in Iowa obliterated his house.  His pickup truck appeared on the front page of the Kansas City Star shown lying atop the rubble that was once his house.

The daughter of an Iowa County Supervisor works in downtown Cedar Rapids.  She was given 30 minutes to evacuate as the flood waters rose.  They were told to expect six inches of water in the building - she raised everything to three feet as a precaution.  At last report, there was eight feet of water in her office building.  Not only has she almost certainly lost everything, it may be weeks or even months before she is able to return.

Her story could likely be repeated 25,000 times - for each of those who were forced to evacuate from that city.  It could be told thousands of times more by the residents of other town and cities along the rivers.

There have been 16 storm-related deaths in the state since the tornado on May 25, including one in Linn County, six in Parkersburg, two in New Hartford, one in Hamilton County, one in Wright County, one in Palo Alto County, and four Boy Scouts in Monona County.

"We've had a real blow to the gut ... but we are going to keep fighting and we are going to be more united at the end of the day," Iowa Governor Chet Culver said.

It seems the 100-year floods are coming about every 10 years or so.  What was thought to be the flood of the century in 1993, has been eclipsed beyond anyone’s imagination today.  This was a 500 year flood.

But not everyone has been surprised by recent events.

In 1998, the United States Environmental Protection Agency published a report entitled, Climate Change and Iowa.  In it, the EPA predicted a 20 percent increase in summertime precipitation - and also stated that an increase in the frequency and intensity of summer thunderstorms is possible.  Based on the events of a decade later, that report seems ominously accurate.

In 2004, a report by the National Climate Data Center found a trend towards an overall increase in precipitation, temperature, streamflow, along with increases in extreme weather events that included a 14 percent increase in “heavy rain events” and a 20 percent increase in “very heavy rain events” during the 20th century.

In 1996, NOAA created the U.S. Climate Extremes Index which tracks changes in extreme weather events.  The chart shows weather precipitation events as somewhat more extreme than average in the early part of the last century, falling to below average in the 30s, late 40s, late 50s and around 1970.  In 1980, the trend picked up - by 2007, the index revealed extreme precipitation events were occurring at a pace well above average.  The four highest points in the index, covering a century of data, have occurred in the past 15 years.  One other thing is obvious on the index:  As much as the averages rise, they also fall.  In other words, based on past history, as extreme events increase in frequency, we should also expect that at some point, they will decrease.

Weather events or even short range patterns at any given moment, however, are not necessarily the direct result of climate change, nor do they necessarily indicate the climate has even changed.  Yet there does appear to be changes afoot.  A study last year at Iowa State University found that over the past 30 years, summers in Iowa are less intense in terms of heat,  the winters are warmer and, like the 1998 EPA report stated, overall precipitation has increased.

“There is no question now that the climate is changing on a global scale,” said Gene Takle, an Iowa State University professor of geological and atmospheric sciences.  “The evidence is so overwhelming.”

If the climate is indeed changing, the changes don’t have to be approached with fear but they will require adaptation.  Some weather events, however, still fall under, “the luck of the draw.”  In Cedar Rapids, people have shifted from speaking of a 100 year flood plain to a 500 year flood plain and, more recently, to a 3,000 year flood plain.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there was only a 0.2 percent probability of flooding of the magnitude seen in Cedar Rapids.  The National Weather Service described it as an historic event with water levels never before seen.

For Iowa, a changing climate, which includes an increase in precipitation, could well mean that we may be in for more flooding.  There are, however, benefits as well.  According to Professor Takle, the change could be beneficial for agriculture over the next 10 to 20 years, creating a longer growing season.

“If the climate is changing, you can’t stop it over the next 50 years,” Takle said.  “What’s coming is coming and we better be prepared to adjust to it.”

For many in Cedar Rapids and other Iowa communities, there was simply no way to be prepared for what happened.  Perhaps now there will be.

So what’s next is anyone’s guess.  Statistical probabilities might suggest that we have paid our dues - the likelihood of another event of this magnitude is low.  Statistics, however, are funny things - one event happening doesn’t necessarily preclude the next event.  What is certain is that for years now scientific research has suggested that extreme weather events will increase in frequency.  Whether they will increase next year remains to be seen.  

In the end, however, it’s not the end of the world - it’s just weather.  Our ancestors were often victimized by it and lately our technology appeared to have triumphed over it.  But now nature has re-shuffled the deck.  Since weather doesn’t have the capacity to respect us, we need to learn a newfound respect for it.  What’s coming is coming.



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